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Nzoia Sugar vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
0 – 1
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
Unknown 74'
1/8/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nzoia Sugar44%
×Draw30%
Chemelil Sugar26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.19
Chemelil Sugar
0.84

Nzoia Sugar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
Chemelil Sugar
0.56

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
Chemelil Sugar
1.42

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
74%
Nzoia Sugar or Chemelil Sugar
70%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
56%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
19%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
57%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
63%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
44%
level
30%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
26%

Nzoia Sugar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs Chemelil Sugar

Chemelil Sugar beat Nzoia Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 8, 2020.

Goals: ? (74').

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.