Chemelil Sugar vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 57+ matches
Chemelil Sugar36%
Nzoia Sugar35%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 57 home / 110 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chemelil Sugar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches
Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.33 · 110 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08
Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Chemelil Sugar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chemelil Sugar host Nzoia Sugar on Saturday, 25 April 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Chemelil Sugar face Nzoia Sugar (FKF Premier League)
FKF Premier League returns with Chemelil Sugar hosting Nzoia Sugar. Match starts April 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Chemelil Sugar host Nzoia Sugar at Chemelil Sports Complex.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.