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Nzoia Sugar vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
2/5/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 12Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Nzoia Sugar31%
×Draw29%
AFC Leopards39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
0.99
AFC Leopards
1.15

AFC Leopards creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 146 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
61%
Nzoia Sugar or AFC Leopards
71%
Draw or AFC Leopards
69%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
12%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
63%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
26%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
8%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
68%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
32%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
44%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
31%
level
29%
AFC Leopards scores more
39%

AFC Leopards at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs AFC Leopards

Nzoia Sugar and AFC Leopards drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.