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AFC Leopards vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
1 – 0
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
5/7/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 26Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

AFC Leopards43%
×Draw29%
Nzoia Sugar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.23
Nzoia Sugar
0.94

AFC Leopards creates 31% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 112 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Nzoia Sugar
1.01

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
72%
AFC Leopards or Nzoia Sugar
71%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
57%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
19%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
71%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
35%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
13%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
61%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
24%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
60%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.01 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
43%
level
29%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
28%

AFC Leopards at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Leopards vs Nzoia Sugar

AFC Leopards beat Nzoia Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.