Nyva Vinnytsya 1–0 Kudrivka: Result & Stats

Nyva Vinnytsya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kudrivka

8/19/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 3Tsentralnyi miskyi stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya40%

×Draw26%

Kudrivka33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva VinnytsyaExpected goals in this matchKudrivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.38

Kudrivka

1.23

Nyva Vinnytsya creates 12% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

1.31

1.16

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.53

Kudrivka

1.31

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.16

Kudrivka

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Kudrivka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Kudrivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw

67%

Nyva Vinnytsya or Kudrivka

74%

Draw or Kudrivka

60%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+

19%

Kudrivka wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals

75%

Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals

40%

Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals

16%

Kudrivka 1+ goals

71%

Kudrivka 2+ goals

35%

Kudrivka 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)

55%

Kudrivka (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Kudrivka away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Kudrivka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kudrivka attack 1.31 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more

40%

level

26%

Kudrivka scores more

33%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff