Kudrivka 1–1 Nyva Vinnytsya: Result & Stats

Kudrivka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nyva Vinnytsya

11/17/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 18Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kudrivka41%

×Draw24%

Nyva Vinnytsya36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KudrivkaExpected goals in this matchNyva Vinnytsya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.52

Kudrivka

1.63

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 76 away

1.79

creates per match

1.32

1.71

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Kudrivka

1.79

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.32

allows per match

Kudrivka

1.71

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kudrivka+0.00on par

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kudrivka ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kudrivka or draw

64%

Kudrivka or Nyva Vinnytsya

76%

Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya

59%

Winning margin

Kudrivka wins by 2+

20%

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kudrivka 1+ goals

80%

Kudrivka 2+ goals

48%

Kudrivka 3+ goals

22%

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals

78%

Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals

45%

Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kudrivka (draw refunded)

53%

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kudrivka at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kudrivka attack 1.79 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Kudrivka defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kudrivka scores more

41%

level

24%

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more

36%

Kudrivka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kudrivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff