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Nyva Vinnytsya vs Karpaty Halych — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
5/23/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 23Tsentralnyi miskyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya40%
×Draw25%
Karpaty Halych36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.49
Karpaty Halych
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 20 away

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.53
Karpaty Halych
1.65

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.16
Karpaty Halych
1.45

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par
Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Karpaty Halych →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw
64%
Nyva Vinnytsya or Karpaty Halych
75%
Draw or Karpaty Halych
60%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
19%
Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
77%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
44%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
19%
Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
75%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
41%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
53%
Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
40%
level
25%
Karpaty Halych scores more
36%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Nyva Vinnytsya 1–1 Karpaty Halych

Nyva Vinnytsya and Karpaty Halych drew 1-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi miskyi Stadion in Vinnytsya.