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Karpaty Halych vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
11/7/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 10Stadion Enerhetik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Karpaty Halych46%
×Draw26%
Nyva Vinnytsya28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Halych
1.46
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.09

Karpaty Halych creates 34% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

creates per match

Karpaty Halych
1.45
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.32

allows per match

Karpaty Halych
0.86
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.46

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par
Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw
72%
Karpaty Halych or Nyva Vinnytsya
74%
Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya
54%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
22%
Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
77%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
43%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
18%
Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
66%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
30%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
62%
Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more
46%
level
26%
Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
28%

Karpaty Halych at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty Halych 4–2 Nyva Vinnytsya

Karpaty Halych beat Nyva Vinnytsya 4-2 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Enerhetik in Burshtyn.