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Nyva Ternopil vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
10/14/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 12Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Ternopil33%
×Draw30%
Nyva Buzova37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Ternopil
1.04
Nyva Buzova
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.08
Nyva Buzova
1.21

allows per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.01
Nyva Buzova
1.00

finishing

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par
Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Ternopil ↓

Nyva Buzova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nyva Ternopil or draw
63%
Nyva Ternopil or Nyva Buzova
70%
Draw or Nyva Buzova
67%

Winning margin

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
13%
Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
65%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
28%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
9%
Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
67%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
30%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
47%
Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Ternopil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.08 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nyva Ternopil scores more
33%
level
30%
Nyva Buzova scores more
37%

Nyva Buzova at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Nyva Ternopil 2–0 Nyva Buzova

Nyva Ternopil beat Nyva Buzova 2-0 in Persha Liga on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha in Ternopil.