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Nyva Buzova vs Nyva Ternopil — Persha Liga 2019

Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
8/11/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 3Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova36%
×Draw28%
Nyva Ternopil36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Buzova
1.21
Nyva Ternopil
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 77 away

creates per match

Nyva Buzova
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
0.99

allows per match

Nyva Buzova
1.43
Nyva Ternopil
1.34

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par
Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Nyva Ternopil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw
64%
Nyva Buzova or Nyva Ternopil
72%
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
64%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
15%
Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
70%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
34%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
12%
Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
70%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
34%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
50%
Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.99 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more
36%
level
28%
Nyva Ternopil scores more
36%

Nyva Buzova at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Nyva Buzova 2–1 Nyva Ternopil

Nyva Buzova beat Nyva Ternopil 2-1 in Persha Liga on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.