Nyva Ternopil 4–1 Khust City: Result & Stats

Nyva Ternopil

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Khust City

I. Hatala 62' (pen)

D. Borodenko 45+1', 18'

D. Haladei 40' (pen)

I. Vahin 9'

11/18/2023

Persha Liga · Round 17Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nyva Ternopil47%

×Draw26%

Khust City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva TernopilExpected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Nyva Ternopil

1.48

Khust City

1.04

Nyva Ternopil creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

1.01

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Nyva Ternopil

1.08

Khust City

1.06

allows per match

Nyva Ternopil

1.01

Khust City

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Ternopil ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nyva Ternopil or draw

73%

Nyva Ternopil or Khust City

74%

Draw or Khust City

53%

Winning margin

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+

24%

Khust City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals

77%

Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals

43%

Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals

19%

Khust City 1+ goals

65%

Khust City 2+ goals

28%

Khust City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)

64%

Khust City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Ternopil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.08 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Khust City attack 1.06 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nyva Ternopil scores more

47%

level

26%

Khust City scores more

27%

Nyva Ternopil at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

I. Vahin

18'

D. Borodenko

40'

D. HaladeiPenalty

45+1'

D. Borodenko

48'

I. Vagin

50'

M. Pylyp

62'

I. HatalaPenalty

65'

D. Banyk← B. Pavlych

68'

I. Tykhnenko

75'

A. Malashchuk← S. Davydov

78'

M. Merdieiev← I. Levchenko

81'

A. Bei← O. Khrustavka

84'

D. Volskyi← R. Volokhatyi

Nyva

Khust

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

⚽

75'▲A. Malashchuk←▼S. Davydov

81'▲A. Bei←▼O. Khrustavka

84'▲D. Volskyi←▼R. Volokhatyi

Nyva Ternopil substitutes

MalashchukBeiVolskyiKozakSokolovZhupanskyi

Manager: V. Tsytkin

65'▲D. Banyk←▼B. Pavlych

78'▲M. Merdieiev←▼I. Levchenko

Khust City substitutes

BanykMerdieievDyianchukMerdieiev