Khust City 2–0 Nyva Ternopil: Result & Stats

Khust City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nyva Ternopil

9/16/2023

Persha Liga · Round 8Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City35%

×Draw26%

Nyva Ternopil39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khust CityExpected goals in this matchNyva Ternopil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.41

Khust City

1.31

Nyva Ternopil

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

1.29

creates per match

0.99

1.82

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Khust City

1.29

Nyva Ternopil

0.99

allows per match

Khust City

1.82

Nyva Ternopil

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Nyva Ternopil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khust City or draw

61%

Khust City or Nyva Ternopil

74%

Draw or Nyva Ternopil

65%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+

15%

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals

73%

Khust City 2+ goals

38%

Khust City 3+ goals

14%

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals

76%

Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals

41%

Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)

47%

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.99 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khust City scores more

35%

level

26%

Nyva Ternopil scores more

39%

Nyva Ternopil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff