Nyva Buzova 1–5 Livyi Bereh: Result & Stats

Nyva Buzova

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Livyi Bereh

Y. Misiura 48'

Sidney 90+1'

D. Sukhoruchko 79'

O. Synytsia 77'

R. Dedukh 66'

A. Yakymiv 37'

3/23/2024

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 1Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova25%

×Draw27%

Livyi Bereh48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchLivyi Bereh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.40

Nyva Buzova

0.92

Livyi Bereh

1.40

Livyi Bereh creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

1.07

creates per match

1.38

1.43

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Livyi Bereh

1.38

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Livyi Bereh

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Livyi Bereh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Livyi Bereh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

52%

Nyva Buzova or Livyi Bereh

73%

Draw or Livyi Bereh

75%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

8%

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

60%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

23%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

7%

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals

75%

Livyi Bereh 2+ goals

41%

Livyi Bereh 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

34%

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Livyi Bereh away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Livyi Bereh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Livyi Bereh attack 1.38 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

25%

level

27%

Livyi Bereh scores more

48%

Livyi Bereh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

I. Mamrosenko

21'

O. Dudarenko

37'

A. Yakymiv

41'

K. Matveev

45+1'

M. Vechurko

46'

H. Klimov← R. Liopka

48'

Y. Misiura

59'

K. Matveev

59'

K. Matveev

66'

R. Dedukh

69'

D. Kulyk← V. Tymenko

71'

D. Falkovskyi← M. Vechurko

77'

O. Synytsia

79'

D. Sukhoruchko

80'

I. Petrenko← D. Sukhoruchko

80'

M. Mysyk← V. Voitsekhovskyi

80'

O. Litovchenko← O. Synytsia

85'

M. Serdiuk← I. Kohut

85'

Sidney← O. Dudarenko

89'

A. Macheliuk← V. Rohozynskyi

90'

I. Mamrosenko

90'

I. Mamrosenko

90+1'

Sidney

Nyva

Livyi

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Loktionov

46'▲H. Klimov←▼R. Liopka

69'▲D. Kulyk←▼V. Tymenko

71'▲D. Falkovskyi←▼M. Vechurko

89'▲A. Macheliuk←▼V. Rohozynskyi

Nyva Buzova substitutes

KlimovKulykFalkovskyiMacheliukKorkishkoHulkoSerdiukKalininNikolyshynChepurnenkoZakharevych

Manager: V. Pervak

80'▲I. Petrenko←▼D. Sukhoruchko

80'▲M. Mysyk←▼V. Voitsekhovskyi

80'▲O. Litovchenko←▼O. Synytsia

85'▲M. Serdiuk←▼I. Kohut

85'▲Sidney←▼O. Dudarenko

Livyi Bereh substitutes

PetrenkoMysykLitovchenkoSerdiukSidneyBykovMekhanivSokolovSamarShvetsStashkiv