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Livyi Bereh vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Livyi Bereh
Livyi Bereh
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
4/27/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Championship Round - 6Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Livyi Bereh55%
×Draw24%
Nyva Buzova21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livyi Bereh
1.69
Nyva Buzova
0.95

Livyi Bereh creates 78% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

Livyi Bereh
2.38
Nyva Buzova
1.21

allows per match

Livyi Bereh
0.69
Nyva Buzova
1.00

finishing

Livyi Bereh+0.00on par
Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh ↓

Nyva Buzova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh or draw
79%
Livyi Bereh or Nyva Buzova
76%
Draw or Nyva Buzova
45%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+
30%
Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals
82%
Livyi Bereh 2+ goals
50%
Livyi Bereh 3+ goals
24%
Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
61%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
25%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)
72%
Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.69 · 29 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh attack 2.38 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Livyi Bereh defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Livyi Bereh scores more
55%
level
24%
Nyva Buzova scores more
21%

Livyi Bereh at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livyi Bereh vs Nyva Buzova

Nyva Buzova beat Livyi Bereh 2-1 in Persha Liga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kyiv.