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Nyva Buzova vs Karpaty — Persha Liga 2019

Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty
Karpaty
10/21/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 13Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova26%
×Draw28%
Karpaty47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Buzova
0.92
Karpaty
1.35

Karpaty creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Nyva Buzova
1.07
Karpaty
1.28

allows per match

Nyva Buzova
1.43
Karpaty
0.76

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw
53%
Nyva Buzova or Karpaty
72%
Draw or Karpaty
74%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
9%
Karpaty wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
60%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
23%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
7%
Karpaty 1+ goals
74%
Karpaty 2+ goals
39%
Karpaty 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
35%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Karpaty defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Karpaty attack 1.28 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more
26%
level
28%
Karpaty scores more
47%

Karpaty at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Karpaty

Karpaty beat Nyva Buzova 1-0 in Persha Liga on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.