Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karpaty vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Karpaty
Karpaty
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
8/18/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 4Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Karpaty46%
×Draw26%
Nyva Buzova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty
1.46
Nyva Buzova
1.06

Karpaty creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

creates per match

Karpaty
1.92
Nyva Buzova
1.21

allows per match

Karpaty
0.92
Nyva Buzova
1.00

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par
Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Nyva Buzova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw
73%
Karpaty or Nyva Buzova
74%
Draw or Nyva Buzova
54%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+
23%
Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals
77%
Karpaty 2+ goals
43%
Karpaty 3+ goals
18%
Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
65%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
29%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)
63%
Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.92 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Karpaty defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karpaty scores more
46%
level
26%
Nyva Buzova scores more
27%

Karpaty at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty vs Nyva Buzova

Karpaty and Nyva Buzova drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.