Nyva Buzova 0–2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Nyva Buzova

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

M. Hirnyi 77', 34'

11/24/2023

Persha Liga · Round 18Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova28%

×Draw29%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchEpitsentr Dunayivtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.25

Nyva Buzova

0.94

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.25

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 36 away

1.07

creates per match

1.08

1.43

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.08

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

57%

Nyva Buzova or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

71%

Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

72%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

10%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

61%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

24%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

7%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

71%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

36%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

39%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

28%

level

29%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

43%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

34'

36'

45'

46'

Y. Hlushchuk← A. Bejenari

55'

Y. Shalfieiev← V. Nekhtii

55'

V. Tymenko← D. Tkachenko

61'

S. Krystin← A. Alibekov

66'

S. Grygorashchuk

68'

M. Serhiichuk← V. Turchanov

77'

M. Hirnyi

80'

I. Bendera← A. Liashenko

81'

Y. Korokhov← P. Zakhidnyi

84'

O. Zhmuida← S. Sten

Nyva

Epitsentr

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

55'▲Y. Shalfieiev←▼V. Nekhtii

55'▲V. Tymenko←▼D. Tkachenko

68'▲M. Serhiichuk←▼V. Turchanov

81'▲Y. Korokhov←▼P. Zakhidnyi

Nyva Buzova substitutes

ShalfieievTymenkoSerhiichukKorokhovMelnykShamychKalininLiopkaZakharchukUrsolovMnyshenko

Manager: S. Nahorniak

46'▲Y. Hlushchuk←▼A. Bejenari

61'▲S. Krystin←▼A. Alibekov

80'▲I. Bendera←▼A. Liashenko

84'▲O. Zhmuida←▼S. Sten

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi substitutes

HlushchukKrystinBenderaZhmuidaPavluchenkoKozlovskyiKravchukBushniakMyroniukPoliuliakh