Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–2 Nyva Buzova

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Nyva Buzova

S. Hryhorashchuk 28' (OG)

R. Palamar 9' (pen)

9/23/2023

Persha Liga · Round 9Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi42%

×Draw26%

Nyva Buzova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Epitsentr DunayivtsiExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.42

Nyva Buzova

1.19

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

1.84

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.84

Nyva Buzova

1.21

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.16

Nyva Buzova

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw

68%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Nyva Buzova

74%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

58%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

20%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

76%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

41%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

17%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

70%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

33%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

57%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

42%

level

26%

Nyva Buzova scores more

32%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Chernobay

9'

R. PalamarPenalty

28'

S. HryhorashchukOwn goal

45'

V. Turchanov

46'

I. Bendera← S. Sten

63'

S. Krystin← A. Bejenari

63'

M. Serhiichuk← V. Nekhtii

63'

V. Tymenko← D. Knysh

70'

R. Lyopka

72'

A. Liashenko← O. Klymets

72'

S. Hryn← M. Hirnyi

75'

Y. Glushchuk

76'

V. Tymenko

76'

O. Kalinin← Y. Shalfieiev

78'

V. Tymenko

78'

V. Tymenko

80'

M. Sergiychuk

85'

Y. Misiura← R. Palamar

90'

V. Krystin

Epitsentr

Nyva

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Nahorniak

46'▲I. Bendera←▼S. Sten

63'▲S. Krystin←▼A. Bejenari

72'▲A. Liashenko←▼O. Klymets

72'▲S. Hryn←▼M. Hirnyi

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi substitutes

BenderaKrystinLiashenkoHrynPavluchenkoKozlovskyiZhmuidaZhmurko

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

63'▲M. Serhiichuk←▼V. Nekhtii

63'▲V. Tymenko←▼D. Knysh

76'▲O. Kalinin←▼Y. Shalfieiev

85'▲Y. Misiura←▼R. Palamar

Nyva Buzova substitutes

SerhiichukTymenkoKalininMisiuraMelnykShamychKlimovZakharchukUrsolovMnyshenko