Nyva Buzova 2–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Nyva Buzova

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

R. Palamar 64'

D. Knysh 9'

V. Ravlyk 27'

7/28/2023

Persha Liga · Round 1Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova36%

×Draw28%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchAhrobiznes Volochysk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

Nyva Buzova

1.19

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

1.07

creates per match

0.99

1.43

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

0.99

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Ahrobiznes Volochysk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

63%

Nyva Buzova or Ahrobiznes Volochysk

72%

Draw or Ahrobiznes Volochysk

64%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

15%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

70%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

33%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

12%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals

70%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals

34%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

49%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 0.99 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

36%

level

28%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more

37%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

27'

34'

47'

57'

57'

V. Tymenko← M. Serhiichuk

64'

R. Palamar

67'

N. Hrytsak← V. Ravlyk

68'

K. Svystun Vadymovych

75'

R. Palamar

81'

O. Kalinin← R. Palamar

81'

O. Len← M. Kvasnyi

81'

V. Tyshyninov← R. Tolochko

81'

V. Zorenko← D. Volkov

85'

M. Tiapkin← K. Svystun

90'

A. Popovich

90'

G. Klimov

90+2'

V. Nekhtiy

Nyva

Ahrobiznes

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Knysh

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

57'▲V. Nekhtii←▼D. Knysh

57'▲V. Tymenko←▼M. Serhiichuk

81'▲O. Kalinin←▼R. Palamar

Nyva Buzova substitutes

NekhtiiTymenkoKalininMelnykShamychZakhidnyiLiopkaZakharchukUrsolov

Manager: O. Chyzhevskyi

67'▲N. Hrytsak←▼V. Ravlyk

81'▲O. Len←▼M. Kvasnyi

81'▲V. Tyshyninov←▼R. Tolochko

81'▲V. Zorenko←▼D. Volkov

85'▲M. Tiapkin←▼K. Svystun

Ahrobiznes Volochysk substitutes

HrytsakLenTyshyninovZorenkoTiapkinKhmelovskyiMinchevBaryliakZaietsHudzinskyiMiachyn

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Nyva Buzova beat Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2-1 in Persha Liga on July 28, 2023.

Goals: D. Knysh (9'), V. Ravlyk (27'), R. Palamar (64').

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.

Nyva Buzova vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk