Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1–0 Nyva Buzova

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nyva Buzova

R. Kuzmin 39'

10/1/2023

Persha Liga · Round 10Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk42%

×Draw29%

Nyva Buzova29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrobiznes VolochyskExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.96

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.23

Nyva Buzova

0.96

Ahrobiznes Volochysk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

1.21

0.72

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.46

Nyva Buzova

1.21

allows per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

0.72

Nyva Buzova

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrobiznes Volochysk ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw

71%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Nyva Buzova

71%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

58%

Winning margin

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+

19%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals

71%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals

35%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals

13%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

62%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

25%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)

60%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 1.46 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more

42%

level

29%

Nyva Buzova scores more

29%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

D. Galenkov

27'

I. Budnyak

39'

52'

55'

57'

69'

D. Litovchenko← D. Knysh

69'

M. Serhiichuk← Y. Shalfieiev

77'

K. Svystun← M. Kvasnyi

77'

O. Len← V. Teplyi

79'

S. Ursolov← V. Nekhtii

85'

R. Kuzmyn

86'

N. Hrytsak← V. Tyshyninov

90+3'

K. Svystun Vadymovych

90'

D. Shostak← D. Halenkov

Ahrobiznes

Nyva

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: O. Chyzhevskyi

77'▲K. Svystun←▼M. Kvasnyi

77'▲O. Len←▼V. Teplyi

86'▲N. Hrytsak←▼V. Tyshyninov

90'▲D. Shostak←▼D. Halenkov

Ahrobiznes Volochysk substitutes

SvystunLenHrytsakShostakKhmelovskyiVolkovMinchevTiapkinBilyiMiachynZorenko

Manager: I. Zhabchenko

69'▲D. Litovchenko←▼D. Knysh

69'▲M. Serhiichuk←▼Y. Shalfieiev

79'▲S. Ursolov←▼V. Nekhtii

Nyva Buzova substitutes

LitovchenkoSerhiichukUrsolovMelnykShamychTkachenkoKlimovKalininZakharchukMnyshenko

Match Recap: Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Nyva Buzova

Ahrobiznes Volochysk beat Nyva Buzova 1-0 in Persha Liga on October 1, 2023.

Goals: R. Kuzmin (39').

The match was played at Stadion Yunist in Volochysk.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Nyva Buzova