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Nyuki vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Nyuki
Nyuki
FT
0 – 3
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
9/18/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nyuki33%
×Draw26%
Lubumbashi Sport41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyuki
1.23
Lubumbashi Sport
1.42

Lubumbashi Sport creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 85 away

creates per match

Nyuki
1.00
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Nyuki
2.08
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Nyuki+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyuki ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nyuki or draw
59%
Nyuki or Lubumbashi Sport
74%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
67%

Winning margin

Nyuki wins by 2+
14%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nyuki 1+ goals
71%
Nyuki 2+ goals
35%
Nyuki 3+ goals
13%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
76%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
41%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nyuki (draw refunded)
44%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyuki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyuki attack 1.00 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Nyuki defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nyuki scores more
33%
level
26%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
41%

Lubumbashi Sport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyuki vs Lubumbashi Sport

Lubumbashi Sport beat Nyuki 3-0 in Ligue 1 on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.