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Lubumbashi Sport vs Nyuki — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
CANC
00:00
Nyuki
Nyuki
3/25/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport70%
×Draw19%
Nyuki11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
2.12
Nyuki
0.70

Lubumbashi Sport creates 203% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Nyuki
0.22

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Nyuki
3.33

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Nyuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
89%
Lubumbashi Sport or Nyuki
81%
Draw or Nyuki
30%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
45%
Nyuki wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
88%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
62%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
35%
Nyuki 1+ goals
50%
Nyuki 2+ goals
16%
Nyuki 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
86%
Nyuki (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
70%
level
19%
Nyuki scores more
11%

Lubumbashi Sport at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lubumbashi Sport host Nyuki

March 25, 2020: Lubumbashi Sport take on Nyuki in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lubumbashi Sport host Nyuki at Stade du TP Mazembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.