Nyuki 0–3 Don Bosco: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Nyuki

FT

0 – 3

Don Bosco

9/12/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nyuki28%

×Draw26%

Don Bosco46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NyukiExpected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.47

Nyuki

1.08

Don Bosco

1.47

Don Bosco creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 96 away

1.00

creates per match

0.85

2.08

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Nyuki

1.00

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Nyuki

2.08

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyuki+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyuki ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nyuki or draw

54%

Nyuki or Don Bosco

74%

Draw or Don Bosco

72%

Winning margin

Nyuki wins by 2+

11%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Nyuki 1+ goals

66%

Nyuki 2+ goals

29%

Nyuki 3+ goals

10%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

77%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

43%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nyuki (draw refunded)

38%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyuki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyuki attack 1.00 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Nyuki defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nyuki scores more

28%

level

26%

Don Bosco scores more

46%

Don Bosco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff