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Don Bosco vs Nyuki — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
CANC
00:00
Nyuki
Nyuki
3/15/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Don Bosco76%
×Draw16%
Nyuki8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
2.31
Nyuki
0.59

Don Bosco creates 292% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 9 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Nyuki
0.22

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Nyuki
3.33

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Nyuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
92%
Don Bosco or Nyuki
84%
Draw or Nyuki
24%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
52%
Nyuki wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
90%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
67%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
40%
Nyuki 1+ goals
45%
Nyuki 2+ goals
12%
Nyuki 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
91%
Nyuki (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Don Bosco scores more
76%
level
16%
Nyuki scores more
8%

Don Bosco at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Don Bosco vs Nyuki — Match Preview

Don Bosco face Nyuki on March 15, 2020 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Don Bosco host Nyuki at Stade du TP Mazembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.