Nyuki 2–2 Dauphins Noirs: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Nyuki

FT

2 – 2

Dauphins Noirs

1/15/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nyuki31%

×Draw26%

Dauphins Noirs43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NyukiExpected goals in this matchDauphins Noirs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.43

Nyuki

1.18

Dauphins Noirs

1.43

Dauphins Noirs creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 77 away

1.00

creates per match

0.78

2.08

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Nyuki

1.00

Dauphins Noirs

0.78

allows per match

Nyuki

2.08

Dauphins Noirs

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyuki+0.00on par

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyuki ↓

Dauphins Noirs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nyuki or draw

57%

Nyuki or Dauphins Noirs

74%

Draw or Dauphins Noirs

69%

Winning margin

Nyuki wins by 2+

13%

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nyuki 1+ goals

69%

Nyuki 2+ goals

33%

Nyuki 3+ goals

12%

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals

76%

Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals

42%

Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nyuki (draw refunded)

42%

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyuki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyuki attack 1.00 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Nyuki defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nyuki scores more

31%

level

26%

Dauphins Noirs scores more

43%

Dauphins Noirs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff