Dauphins Noirs 3–0 Nyuki: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Dauphins Noirs

FT

3 – 0

Nyuki

9/28/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dauphins Noirs76%

×Draw17%

Nyuki8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dauphins NoirsExpected goals in this matchNyuki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.53

Dauphins Noirs

2.20

Nyuki

0.53

Dauphins Noirs creates 315% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 9 away

1.06

creates per match

0.22

0.84

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs

1.06

Nyuki

0.22

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs

0.84

Nyuki

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Nyuki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw

92%

Dauphins Noirs or Nyuki

83%

Draw or Nyuki

24%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+

51%

Nyuki wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals

89%

Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals

64%

Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals

37%

Nyuki 1+ goals

41%

Nyuki 2+ goals

10%

Nyuki 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)

91%

Nyuki (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more

76%

level

17%

Nyuki scores more

8%

Dauphins Noirs at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff