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Nykobing FC vs Roskilde — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
Preview
17:00
Roskilde
Roskilde
8/28/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 5
Big match
44%
Roskilde
model favours
30%26%44%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC30%
×Draw26%
Roskilde44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.14
Roskilde
1.46

Roskilde creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 46 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Roskilde
1.43

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Roskilde
1.33

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
56%
Nykobing FC or Roskilde
74%
Draw or Roskilde
70%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
12%
Roskilde wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
68%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
32%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
11%
Roskilde 1+ goals
77%
Roskilde 2+ goals
43%
Roskilde 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
40%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Roskilde attack 1.43 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
30%
level
26%
Roskilde scores more
44%

Roskilde at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WWWW
Roskilde
LDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nykobing FC vs Roskilde — Match Preview

Nykobing FC face Roskilde on August 28, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.