Nykobing FC 2–1 Middelfart: Result & Stats

Nykobing FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Middelfart

6/9/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 9Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC29%

×Draw27%

Middelfart44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nykobing FCExpected goals in this matchMiddelfart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.41

Nykobing FC

1.09

Middelfart

1.41

Middelfart creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 56 away

0.94

creates per match

1.32

1.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Nykobing FC

0.94

Middelfart

1.32

allows per match

Nykobing FC

1.50

Middelfart

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Middelfart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw

56%

Nykobing FC or Middelfart

73%

Draw or Middelfart

71%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+

11%

Middelfart wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals

66%

Nykobing FC 2+ goals

30%

Nykobing FC 3+ goals

10%

Middelfart 1+ goals

76%

Middelfart 2+ goals

41%

Middelfart 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)

40%

Middelfart (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Middelfart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Middelfart attack 1.32 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nykobing FC scores more

29%

level

27%

Middelfart scores more

44%

Middelfart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff