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Middelfart vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
10/21/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Middelfart53%
×Draw23%
Nykobing FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.83
Nykobing FC
1.17

Middelfart creates 56% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 32 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
76%
Middelfart or Nykobing FC
77%
Draw or Nykobing FC
47%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
30%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
84%
Middelfart 2+ goals
54%
Middelfart 3+ goals
28%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
69%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
68%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Middelfart scores more
53%
level
23%
Nykobing FC scores more
24%

Middelfart at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Nykobing FC

Middelfart and Nykobing FC drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.