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Nykobing FC vs Jammerbugt — 1. Division 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
9/19/20211. Division1. Division · Round 9Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nykobing FC51%
×Draw22%
Jammerbugt27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.96
Jammerbugt
1.37

Nykobing FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
1.66
Jammerbugt
0.88

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.86
Jammerbugt
2.25

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Jammerbugt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
73%
Nykobing FC or Jammerbugt
78%
Draw or Jammerbugt
49%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
29%
Jammerbugt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
86%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
58%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
31%
Jammerbugt 1+ goals
75%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
40%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
66%
Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.86 · 64 matches

Jammerbugt away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 1.66 + Jammerbugt defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jammerbugt attack 0.88 + Nykobing FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
51%
level
22%
Jammerbugt scores more
27%

Nykobing FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nykobing FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Nykobing FC 4–1 Jammerbugt

Nykobing FC beat Jammerbugt 4-1 in 1. Division on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.