Jammerbugt 0–5 Nykobing FC: Result & Stats

Jammerbugt

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Nykobing FC

10/30/2021

1. Division · Round 14Jetsmark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jammerbugt33%

×Draw23%

Nykobing FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JammerbugtExpected goals in this matchNykobing FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.78

Jammerbugt

1.53

Nykobing FC

1.78

Nykobing FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

1.13

creates per match

1.18

2.38

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Jammerbugt

1.13

Nykobing FC

1.18

allows per match

Jammerbugt

2.38

Nykobing FC

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

Nykobing FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw

56%

Jammerbugt or Nykobing FC

77%

Draw or Nykobing FC

67%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+

16%

Nykobing FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals

78%

Jammerbugt 2+ goals

45%

Jammerbugt 3+ goals

20%

Nykobing FC 1+ goals

83%

Nykobing FC 2+ goals

53%

Nykobing FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)

43%

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.13 + Nykobing FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nykobing FC attack 1.18 + Jammerbugt defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jammerbugt scores more

33%

level

23%

Nykobing FC scores more

44%

Nykobing FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nykobing FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff