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Nykobing FC vs Frem — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Frem
Frem
D. Warmbach 61'
8/23/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 4Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC36%
×Draw27%
Frem37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.25
Frem
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 53 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Frem
1.06

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Frem
1.55

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
63%
Nykobing FC or Frem
73%
Draw or Frem
64%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
16%
Frem wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
71%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
36%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
13%
Frem 1+ goals
72%
Frem 2+ goals
37%
Frem 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
49%
Frem (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Frem away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Frem defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Frem attack 1.06 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Frem scores more
37%

Frem at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
E. Zekiri
44'
A. Hermansen
45'
O. Angus
46'
M. Nykjaer← M. Nykjaer
46'
T. Brogaard
46'
S. Drammeh
53'
L. Callaku← O. Djafer-Bey
55'
L. Nyman
61'
D. Warmbach
73'
N. Larsen← N. Larsen
76'
D. Warmbach
76'
T. Noer← T. Noer
76'
A. Hermansen← C. Remmer
76'
M. Gernsoe← M. Gernsoe
82'
D. Warmbach← B. Sahin
90'
W. Lohse← W. Lohse
90'
O. Jakobsen← M. Rasmussen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nykobing FC vs Frem

Frem beat Nykobing FC 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 23, 2024.

Goals: D. Warmbach (61').

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.