Frem 1–1 Nykobing FC: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Frem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nykobing FC

3/7/2026

3. Division · Round 17Valby Idraetspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Frem28%

×Draw23%

Nykobing FC49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FremExpected goals in this matchNykobing FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.78

Frem

1.29

Nykobing FC

1.78

Nykobing FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 16 away

1.90

creates per match

2.38

1.19

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Frem

1.90

Nykobing FC

2.38

allows per match

Frem

1.19

Nykobing FC

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frem+0.00on par

Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Nykobing FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Frem or draw

51%

Frem or Nykobing FC

77%

Draw or Nykobing FC

72%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+

12%

Nykobing FC wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals

72%

Frem 2+ goals

37%

Frem 3+ goals

14%

Nykobing FC 1+ goals

83%

Nykobing FC 2+ goals

53%

Nykobing FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)

36%

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.90 + Nykobing FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nykobing FC attack 2.38 + Frem defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frem scores more

28%

level

23%

Nykobing FC scores more

49%

Nykobing FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nykobing FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff