Frem 0–1 Nykobing FC: Result & Stats

Frem

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nykobing FC

E. Ogude 4'

5/31/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 8Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Frem51%

×Draw23%

Nykobing FC26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FremExpected goals in this matchNykobing FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.19

Frem

1.78

Nykobing FC

1.19

Frem creates 50% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 32 away

1.40

creates per match

1.13

1.26

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Frem

1.40

Nykobing FC

1.13

allows per match

Frem

1.26

Nykobing FC

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frem+0.00on par

Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Nykobing FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Frem or draw

74%

Frem or Nykobing FC

77%

Draw or Nykobing FC

49%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+

28%

Nykobing FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals

83%

Frem 2+ goals

53%

Frem 3+ goals

26%

Nykobing FC 1+ goals

70%

Nykobing FC 2+ goals

33%

Nykobing FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)

67%

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.78

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frem scores more

51%

level

23%

Nykobing FC scores more

26%

Frem at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

E. Ogude

22'

J. Shaibu← J. Mathys

31'

G. Hansen

39'

J. Canto

46'

F. Kristensen← F. Kristensen

46'

A. Hermansen← O. Djafer-Bey

51'

E. Ogude

61'

E. Wass← E. Wass

61'

O. Gartig← O. Gartig

61'

M. Basse← M. Basse

73'

B. Warlo← B. Warlo

77'

F. Kristensen

82'

L. Jensen← L. Jensen

85'

K. Jensen

86'

M. Dahl← O. Basse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff