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Nykobing FC vs Esbjerg — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
O. Angus 89' (pen)
W. Delvin 6'
A. Lausen 8'
5/3/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 4Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nykobing FC23%
×Draw24%
Esbjerg54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.06
Esbjerg
1.76

Esbjerg creates 66% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Esbjerg
2.03

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Esbjerg
1.19

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
46%
Nykobing FC or Esbjerg
76%
Draw or Esbjerg
77%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
8%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
65%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
29%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
9%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
83%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
52%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
30%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Esbjerg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Esbjerg attack 2.03 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
23%
level
24%
Esbjerg scores more
54%

Esbjerg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
W. Delvin
8'
A. Lausen
89'
O. AngusPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Nykobing FC 2–1 Esbjerg

Nykobing FC beat Esbjerg 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: W. Delvin (6'), A. Lausen (8'), O. Angus (89' pen).

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.