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Esbjerg vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
E. Andersen 87'
S. Simpson 75', 5'
6/15/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 10Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg66%
×Draw18%
Nykobing FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
2.44
Nykobing FC
1.11

Esbjerg creates 120% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
2.71
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.10
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
84%
Esbjerg or Nykobing FC
82%
Draw or Nykobing FC
34%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
44%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
91%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
70%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
43%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
67%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
30%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
81%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.44

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Esbjerg scores more
66%
level
18%
Nykobing FC scores more
16%

Esbjerg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Simpson
75'
S. Simpson
87'
E. Andersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esbjerg vs Nykobing FC

Esbjerg beat Nykobing FC 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: S. Simpson (5', 75'), E. Andersen (87').

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.