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Nyasa Big Bullets vs FOMO — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FOMO
FOMO
7/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets70%
×Draw19%
FOMO11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.03
FOMO
0.64

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 217% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.33
FOMO
0.53

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.74
FOMO
1.73

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
FOMO+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

FOMO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
89%
Nyasa Big Bullets or FOMO
81%
Draw or FOMO
30%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
44%
FOMO wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
87%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
60%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
33%
FOMO 1+ goals
47%
FOMO 2+ goals
14%
FOMO 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
87%
FOMO (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

FOMO away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + FOMO defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.03

FOMO attack 0.53 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
70%
level
19%
FOMO scores more
11%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyasa Big Bullets vs FOMO

Nyasa Big Bullets beat FOMO 3-0 in Super League on July 17, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.