FOMO 0–2 Nyasa Big Bullets: Result & Stats

FOMO

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nyasa Big Bullets

12/1/2024

Super League · Round 23Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO24%

×Draw33%

Nyasa Big Bullets43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FOMOExpected goals in this matchNyasa Big Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.02

FOMO

0.69

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.02

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

0.80

creates per match

1.23

0.80

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

FOMO

0.80

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.23

allows per match

FOMO

0.80

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

FOMO or draw

57%

FOMO or Nyasa Big Bullets

67%

Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets

76%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+

7%

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals

50%

FOMO 2+ goals

15%

FOMO 3+ goals

3%

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

64%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

27%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)

36%

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FOMO scores more

24%

level

33%

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

43%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff