NWS Spirit 1–2 Marconi Stallions: Result & Stats

NWS Spirit

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Marconi Stallions

4/12/2025

New South Wales NPL · Round 10Christie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

NWS Spirit35%

×Draw25%

Marconi Stallions40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NWS SpiritExpected goals in this matchMarconi Stallions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.48

NWS Spirit

1.37

Marconi Stallions

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 95 away

1.74

creates per match

1.67

1.30

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

NWS Spirit

1.74

Marconi Stallions

1.67

allows per match

NWS Spirit

1.30

Marconi Stallions

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NWS Spirit+0.00on par

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NWS Spirit ↓

Marconi Stallions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

NWS Spirit or draw

60%

NWS Spirit or Marconi Stallions

75%

Draw or Marconi Stallions

65%

Winning margin

NWS Spirit wins by 2+

16%

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

NWS Spirit 1+ goals

75%

NWS Spirit 2+ goals

40%

NWS Spirit 3+ goals

16%

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals

77%

Marconi Stallions 2+ goals

43%

Marconi Stallions 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)

47%

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NWS Spirit at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 57 matches

Marconi Stallions away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NWS Spirit attack 1.74 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Marconi Stallions attack 1.67 + NWS Spirit defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NWS Spirit scores more

35%

level

25%

Marconi Stallions scores more

40%

Marconi Stallions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff