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Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit — New South Wales NPL 2026

Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
3/2/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 3Marconi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Marconi Stallions51%
×Draw23%
NWS Spirit26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marconi Stallions
1.88
NWS Spirit
1.29

Marconi Stallions creates 46% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 56 away

creates per match

Marconi Stallions
2.16
NWS Spirit
1.30

allows per match

Marconi Stallions
1.28
NWS Spirit
1.59

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par
NWS Spirit+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

NWS Spirit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw
74%
Marconi Stallions or NWS Spirit
77%
Draw or NWS Spirit
49%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+
29%
NWS Spirit wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals
85%
Marconi Stallions 2+ goals
56%
Marconi Stallions 3+ goals
29%
NWS Spirit 1+ goals
72%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
37%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)
66%
NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

NWS Spirit away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + NWS Spirit defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.88

NWS Spirit attack 1.30 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more
51%
level
23%
NWS Spirit scores more
26%

Marconi Stallions at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marconi Stallions vs NWS Spirit

Marconi Stallions beat NWS Spirit 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Marconi Stadium in Sydney.