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NWS Spirit vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
A. Bakmaz 46', 26'
A. Gountounas 90+4'
3/23/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 7Christie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

NWS Spirit56%
×Draw22%
Central Coast II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NWS Spirit
1.96
Central Coast II
1.15

NWS Spirit creates 70% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

creates per match

NWS Spirit
1.74
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

NWS Spirit
1.30
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

NWS Spirit+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NWS Spirit ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

NWS Spirit or draw
78%
NWS Spirit or Central Coast II
78%
Draw or Central Coast II
44%

Winning margin

NWS Spirit wins by 2+
33%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

NWS Spirit 1+ goals
86%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
58%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
31%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
68%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
32%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
72%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NWS Spirit at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 57 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NWS Spirit attack 1.74 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + NWS Spirit defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NWS Spirit scores more
56%
level
22%
Central Coast II scores more
22%

NWS Spirit at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
A. Bakmaz
46'
A. Bakmaz
90+4'
A. Gountounas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NWS Spirit vs Central Coast II

NWS Spirit beat Central Coast II 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on March 23, 2024.

Goals: A. Bakmaz (26', 46'), A. Gountounas (90+4').

The match was played at Christie Park in Macquarie Park.