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Central Coast II vs NWS Spirit — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
H. Menham 86'
A. De Lima 78'
N. Duarte 60'
6/29/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 22Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II38%
×Draw24%
NWS Spirit38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.56
NWS Spirit
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 56 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
NWS Spirit
1.30

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
NWS Spirit
1.59

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
NWS Spirit+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

NWS Spirit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
62%
Central Coast II or NWS Spirit
76%
Draw or NWS Spirit
62%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
19%
NWS Spirit wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
79%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
46%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
21%
NWS Spirit 1+ goals
79%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
46%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
50%
NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

NWS Spirit away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + NWS Spirit defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

NWS Spirit attack 1.30 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Central Coast II scores more
38%
level
24%
NWS Spirit scores more
38%

Central Coast II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Central Coast II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
K. Shaw
60'
N. Duarte
78'
A. De Lima
86'
H. Menham

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Central Coast II 3–0 NWS Spirit

Central Coast II beat NWS Spirit 3-0 in New South Wales NPL on June 29, 2024.

Goals: N. Duarte (60'), A. De Lima (78'), H. Menham (86').

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.