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NWS Spirit vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
FT
3 – 1
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
4/9/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 5Christie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NWS Spirit57%
×Draw21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NWS Spirit
2.17
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.28

NWS Spirit creates 70% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 62 away

creates per match

NWS Spirit
2.35
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

NWS Spirit
1.25
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

NWS Spirit+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NWS Spirit ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

NWS Spirit or draw
78%
NWS Spirit or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
79%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
43%

Winning margin

NWS Spirit wins by 2+
35%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NWS Spirit 1+ goals
89%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
64%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
36%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
72%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
37%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
72%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NWS Spirit at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NWS Spirit attack 2.35 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.17

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + NWS Spirit defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

NWS Spirit scores more
57%
level
21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
22%

NWS Spirit at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: NWS Spirit 3–1 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

NWS Spirit beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Christie Park in Macquarie Park.