Bonnyrigg White Eagles 0–1 NWS Spirit

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

FT

0 – 1

NWS Spirit

6/25/2022

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles32%

×Draw25%

NWS Spirit43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg White EaglesExpected goals in this matchNWS Spirit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.55

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.29

NWS Spirit

1.55

NWS Spirit creates 20% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

1.57

creates per match

1.68

1.42

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.57

NWS Spirit

1.68

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.42

NWS Spirit

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

NWS Spirit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

NWS Spirit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw

57%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or NWS Spirit

75%

Draw or NWS Spirit

68%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

14%

NWS Spirit wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

72%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

37%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

14%

NWS Spirit 1+ goals

79%

NWS Spirit 2+ goals

46%

NWS Spirit 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

42%

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

NWS Spirit away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + NWS Spirit defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

NWS Spirit attack 1.68 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

32%

level

25%

NWS Spirit scores more

43%

NWS Spirit at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff