Nürnberg U19 3–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Nürnberg U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

L. Vonić 65'

M. Náprstek 40'

P. Muteba 3'

10/16/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Nürnberg U1966%

×Draw17%

Kickers Offenbach U1917%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

1.38

Nürnberg U19

2.76

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.38

Nürnberg U19 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 47 away

2.46

creates per match

0.98

1.77

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

83%

Nürnberg U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

83%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

34%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

45%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

94%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

76%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

51%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

75%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

40%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.76

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

66%

level

17%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

17%

Nürnberg U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

19'

40'

51'

54'

65'

N. Acun← Z. Daaou

65'

L. Vonić

68'

D. Tomic← M. Náprstek

71'

E. Herger← F. Ilic

77'

U. Nassery← M. Kosch

80'

L. Auer← L. Vonić

Nürnberg

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Náprstek

⚽

▼

Vonić

Manager: A. Wolf

54'▲B. Fischer←▼N. Brown

68'▲D. Tomic←▼M. Náprstek

71'▲E. Herger←▼F. Ilic

80'▲L. Auer←▼L. Vonić

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

FischerTomicHergerAuerKocGahlertHuhnholz

Manager: R. Trabert

19'▲V. Reppel←▼S. Süsin

51'▲Z. Arapi←▼J. Blockus

65'▲N. Acun←▼Z. Daaou

77'▲U. Nassery←▼M. Kosch

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

ReppelArapiAcunNasseryHagenStarodidWeiper

U19 Bundesliga: Nürnberg U19 3–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Nürnberg U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 16, 2021.

Goals: P. Muteba (3'), M. Náprstek (40'), L. Vonić (65').

The match was played at Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5 in Nürnberg.

Nürnberg U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Nürnberg U19 3–0 Kickers Offenbach U19