Kickers Offenbach U19 0–4 Nürnberg U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Nürnberg U19

11/26/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 12SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1932%

×Draw21%

Nürnberg U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchNürnberg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.20

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Nürnberg U19

2.20

Nürnberg U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 71 away

1.77

creates per match

1.94

2.46

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Nürnberg U19

1.94

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Nürnberg U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

52%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Nürnberg U19

79%

Draw or Nürnberg U19

68%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

16%

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

83%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

53%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

26%

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

89%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

64%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.94 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Nürnberg U19 scores more

48%

Nürnberg U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Kickers

Nürnberg

Manager: S. Stuppia

Manager: M. These