Nürnberg U19 3–1 Ingolstadt U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ingolstadt U19

L. Chiumento 90+2'

B. Calemba 80' (OG)

P. Kraußold 73' (pen)

B. Berk 52'

3/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 7Sportpark Valznerweiher - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nürnberg U1942%

×Draw21%

Ingolstadt U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.94

Nürnberg U19

2.08

Ingolstadt U19

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 73 away

2.46

creates per match

2.10

1.77

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

Ingolstadt U19

2.10

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

63%

Nürnberg U19 or Ingolstadt U19

79%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

58%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

87%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

61%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

34%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

86%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

58%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.10 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

42%

level

21%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

37%

Nürnberg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

B. Berk

57'

T. Berger← N. Rutkowski

60'

N. Che← N. Lakatos

60'

O. Oladosu← E. Asoegwu

60'

T. Hengmith← B. Berk

69'

B. Calemba← T. Hoffmann

73'

P. KraußoldPenalty

75'

M. Zekirowski← B. Eichner

80'

I. Petkos← K. Michelbach

80'

B. CalembaOwn goal

90+2'

K. Oberszt-Golak← L. Chiumento

90+2'

L. Gerner← D. Okpodu

90+2'

L. Chiumento

Nürnberg

Ingolstadt

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Chiumento

▼

Okpodu

Nickisch

Manager: M. These

57'▲T. Berger←▼N. Rutkowski

75'▲M. Zekirowski←▼B. Eichner

90+2'▲K. Oberszt-Golak←▼L. Chiumento

90+2'▲L. Gerner←▼D. Okpodu

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

BergerZekirowskiOberszt-GolakGernerFischer

Manager: W. Bauer

60'▲N. Che←▼N. Lakatos

60'▲O. Oladosu←▼E. Asoegwu

60'▲T. Hengmith←▼B. Berk

69'▲B. Calemba←▼T. Hoffmann

80'▲I. Petkos←▼K. Michelbach

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

CheOladosuHengmithCalembaPetkosHernández