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Ingolstadt U19 vs Nürnberg U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Ingolstadt U19
Ingolstadt U19advanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
A. Polat 90'
K. Michelbach 62'
A. Meyer 51'
O. Oladosu 13'
D. Klos 31' (pen)
10/4/2025DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 32BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ingolstadt U1953%
×Draw23%
Nürnberg U1924%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt U19
1.83
Nürnberg U19
1.14

Ingolstadt U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19
2.00
Nürnberg U19
1.67

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19
0.60
Nürnberg U19
1.67

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par
Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw
76%
Ingolstadt U19 or Nürnberg U19
77%
Draw or Nürnberg U19
47%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+
30%
Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals
84%
Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals
54%
Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals
28%
Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
68%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
32%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.00 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.67 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more
53%
level
23%
Nürnberg U19 scores more
24%

Ingolstadt U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
O. Oladosu
31'
D. KlosPenalty
51'
A. Meyer
62'
K. Michelbach
90'
A. Polat
Ingolstadt
Nürnberg
W. Bauer
Manager: W. Bauer
M. These
Manager: M. These

DFB Junioren Pokal: Ingolstadt U19 4–1 Nürnberg U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Nürnberg U19 4-1 in DFB Junioren Pokal on October 4, 2025.

Goals: O. Oladosu (13'), D. Klos (31' pen), A. Meyer (51'), K. Michelbach (62'), A. Polat (90').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.