Nürnberg U19 3–2 FSV Frankfurt U19: Result & Stats

Nürnberg U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FSV Frankfurt U19

B. Šatkus 90+3'

E. Hinz 73'

T. Latteier 46'

A. Solano 52'

F. Pandza 48'

3/30/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21Max-Morlock-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nürnberg U1955%

×Draw20%

FSV Frankfurt U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nürnberg U19Expected goals in this matchFSV Frankfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.50

Nürnberg U19

2.28

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.50

Nürnberg U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 31 away

2.46

creates per match

1.23

1.77

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Nürnberg U19

2.46

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.23

allows per match

Nürnberg U19

1.77

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw

75%

Nürnberg U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19

80%

Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19

45%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

34%

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

90%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

66%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

39%

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

78%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

44%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

69%

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.28

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

25%

Nürnberg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

48'

50'

52'

52'

73'

74'

D. Yokota← L. Schneider

78'

G. Nyary← E. Basista

82'

P. Tekeser← L. Rosenlöcher

82'

K. Pinho← İ. Aral

86'

R. Bouembe← Y. Hida

90+3'

B. Šatkus

Nürnberg

FSV

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Wimmer

52'▲S. Korac←▼D. Pfeil

78'▲G. Nyary←▼E. Basista

82'▲P. Tekeser←▼L. Rosenlöcher

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

KoracNyaryTekeserWillertFlippWhiteRumpel

Manager: H. Sünal

50'▲L. Desch←▼D. Amoah

74'▲D. Yokota←▼L. Schneider

82'▲K. Pinho←▼İ. Aral

86'▲R. Bouembe←▼Y. Hida

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

DeschYokotaPinhoBouembeTouréKraftMahmudov

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19

Nürnberg U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 30, 2019.

Goals: T. Latteier (46'), F. Pandza (48'), A. Solano (52'), E. Hinz (73'), B. Šatkus (90+3').

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz in Nürnberg.

Nürnberg U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nürnberg U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19