FSV Frankfurt U19 0–3 Nürnberg U19: Result & Stats

FSV Frankfurt U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nürnberg U19

M. Zietsch 66'

N. White 17'

M. Rugova 5'

10/21/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 8Rasenplatz Bornheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1933%

×Draw22%

Nürnberg U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Frankfurt U19Expected goals in this matchNürnberg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.96

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.65

Nürnberg U19

1.96

Nürnberg U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 71 away

1.52

creates per match

1.94

1.97

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.52

Nürnberg U19

1.94

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.97

Nürnberg U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw

55%

FSV Frankfurt U19 or Nürnberg U19

78%

Draw or Nürnberg U19

67%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

16%

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

81%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

49%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

23%

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

86%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

58%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.94 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Nürnberg U19 scores more

45%

Nürnberg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Rugova

17'

N. White

57'

T. Latteier← P. Hofmann

61'

M. Weinhardt← E. Albayrak

61'

Rodrigo Tiago← D. Amoah

61'

E. Sejdović← M. Yasar

66'

M. Zietsch

68'

F. Voigt← L. Rosenlöcher

70'

M. Mahmudov← İ. Aral

73'

M. Strobel← M. Rugova

85'

F. Groß← J. Bajic

FSV

Nürnberg

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Sünal

61'▲M. Weinhardt←▼E. Albayrak

61'▲Rodrigo Tiago←▼D. Amoah

61'▲E. Sejdović←▼M. Yasar

70'▲M. Mahmudov←▼İ. Aral

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

WeinhardtTiagoSejdovićMahmudovDelicHarbrechtBouembe

Manager: D. Wimmer

57'▲T. Latteier←▼P. Hofmann

68'▲F. Voigt←▼L. Rosenlöcher

73'▲M. Strobel←▼M. Rugova

85'▲F. Groß←▼J. Bajic

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

LatteierVoigtStrobelGroßWillert